Monday, March 28, 2005
Just got back from Siwa last night, a trip that Walid and I had organized for 21 people, including 12 CASAns. We had more security problems on the way back, as the one microbus we had (a few of us went public transportation) was hounded by a police escort the whole way which slowed them down and forced them to stop only at completely empty resthouses without any other customers. When we got back to Cairo, we discovered why--on Saturday, there was a wave of arrests, seizing 50 members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood, easily the largest opposition group in Egypt. The next day, there were protests were a further 100 arrests, that coming on top of protests by the small but vocal liberal opposition (Ayman Nour, the Enough movement).
If you happen to be watching ABC News in the next couple of days, they filmed a group of us at an 'ahwa (coffeehouse) drinking tea, smoking sheesha, and chatting in Arabic for some report on Americans studying Arabic.
If you happen to be watching ABC News in the next couple of days, they filmed a group of us at an 'ahwa (coffeehouse) drinking tea, smoking sheesha, and chatting in Arabic for some report on Americans studying Arabic.
Wednesday, March 23, 2005
I came down with some kind of throat cold yesterday and today, bad timing since we leave for Siwa in an hour. Organizing the trip was kind of a pain too, because of problems with the drivers and state security. The brother of a friend of Walid's from Fayoum was going to come with another driver to take us directly to Siwa, but then the day before yesterday the police in Fayoum confiscated the licenses of all the drivers at the stations in order to compel them to vote in elections which are today, meaning that the two drivers can't get to Cairo until after 8:00pm. Walid went to a microbus station in northern Shubra and found a couple drivers (though more expensive, LE650 each whereas we had agreed at LE550 each), but they can't come pick us up at AUC. The recent demonstrations resulted in tightened security downtown, and buses aren't allowed to stop anywhere downtown, meaning we have to all take the metro out to Shubra to meet up with the drivers there.
Monday, March 21, 2005
Demonstrations in Tahrir Square yesterday and today, with very heavy security around the square and surrounding AUC. The notice we got from the embassy says it's about the latest fighting in Iraq, though there are unsubstantiated rumors going around that the Man bumped off opposition leader Ayman Nour, who was hospitalized in late February while in prison. Unless I missed something, Iraq hasn't really changed that much in the last few days, so it's a little odd.
Amin brought a new lady friend and her seven-year-old son to ultimate frisbee on Friday, and sat out after playing a couple points, complaining of soreness, and rested his head in her lap for the rest of the game. His unorthodox taste in women is well-known to anyone that's met him, but she breaks a new record. When Khalid the Egyptian, Walid, and I agreed on this point, Amin said in his defense "but she has nice hair".
p.s. The topic of the demonstrations came up at work today, and someone said something about the Muslim Brotherhood protesting government intervention in their elections, but another explanation that made more sense is that it's because of the war's second anniversary.
Amin brought a new lady friend and her seven-year-old son to ultimate frisbee on Friday, and sat out after playing a couple points, complaining of soreness, and rested his head in her lap for the rest of the game. His unorthodox taste in women is well-known to anyone that's met him, but she breaks a new record. When Khalid the Egyptian, Walid, and I agreed on this point, Amin said in his defense "but she has nice hair".
p.s. The topic of the demonstrations came up at work today, and someone said something about the Muslim Brotherhood protesting government intervention in their elections, but another explanation that made more sense is that it's because of the war's second anniversary.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Yesterday, on my way home from university I gave Walid and Yassir a call at about 9:00pm to see if they wanted me to pick up any food for dinner. There were two guests staying with us for the night (I still got a mattress to myself, partly since I have to sleep diagonally to fit on it, and the four of them shared a bed and blanket), and they requested frozen chicken, vegetables, and bread to start cooking. I was beside the main entrance to Al-Azhar Mosque, on my way to the vegetable market behind it, when I ran into Abu Muhammad, a scrawny middle-aged man with decaying teeth and a son named Muhammad, or so I've surmised.
He was going home for dinner and invited me over to see the view from his roof-top apartment, an invitation he had extended before but that I had always backed out of accepting. I did want to see the apartment, though, so I took him up on it this time.
His apartment was directly behind Al-Azhar only a two-minute walk away, at the top of a six or seven-floor building. His modest apartment consisted of a single room, shared with another guy about his age, who when I came was busy warming up some peas/carrots in tomato sauce over rice for their dinner. The view, as promised, was fantastic, with the Citadel about one km to the southeast and at least a dozen old, lit mosques between there and the apartment, while we were overlooking Al-Azhar itself and Hussein behind it, with a crescent moon in the sky.
Abu Muhammad: What do you think of the view, yaa Khalouda? (nickname for anyone named Khalid).
Me: It's just beautiful.
Abu Muhammad [caught up in the romantic atmosphere]: But not as beautiful as you.
The first thing that struck me was that there was some element of hyperbole in what he said. Even granting that I, much as my barnyard namesake, have a certain strong yet sensitive je ne sais quoi about me, in the eyes of most beholders I am still a step below a panoramic view over the medieval monuments of Islamic Cairo in the early evening of a clear day with unusually little deadly, choking pollution.
The second thing that struck me was his elbow, as he made a clumsy attempt to put his arm around my shoulder. I abruptly changed topics, introducing the subject of my leaving in the near future, and the possibility of the supermarket running out of Kooki* brand frozen chicken wings. He tried to persuade me to stay, but I got off with only a couple parting kisses on my cheeks.
He was going home for dinner and invited me over to see the view from his roof-top apartment, an invitation he had extended before but that I had always backed out of accepting. I did want to see the apartment, though, so I took him up on it this time.
His apartment was directly behind Al-Azhar only a two-minute walk away, at the top of a six or seven-floor building. His modest apartment consisted of a single room, shared with another guy about his age, who when I came was busy warming up some peas/carrots in tomato sauce over rice for their dinner. The view, as promised, was fantastic, with the Citadel about one km to the southeast and at least a dozen old, lit mosques between there and the apartment, while we were overlooking Al-Azhar itself and Hussein behind it, with a crescent moon in the sky.
Abu Muhammad: What do you think of the view, yaa Khalouda? (nickname for anyone named Khalid).
Me: It's just beautiful.
Abu Muhammad [caught up in the romantic atmosphere]: But not as beautiful as you.
The first thing that struck me was that there was some element of hyperbole in what he said. Even granting that I, much as my barnyard namesake, have a certain strong yet sensitive je ne sais quoi about me, in the eyes of most beholders I am still a step below a panoramic view over the medieval monuments of Islamic Cairo in the early evening of a clear day with unusually little deadly, choking pollution.
The second thing that struck me was his elbow, as he made a clumsy attempt to put his arm around my shoulder. I abruptly changed topics, introducing the subject of my leaving in the near future, and the possibility of the supermarket running out of Kooki* brand frozen chicken wings. He tried to persuade me to stay, but I got off with only a couple parting kisses on my cheeks.
Monday, March 14, 2005
My blogs may be boring, but at least they're short.
And here's an article about the richest family in Egypt (90th richest person/family in the world). They're Coptic Christians originally from Sohag, the poorest province in Egypt, which is about half Christian.
The Economist
Technology and development
Mar 10th 2005
FROM the pyramids to the Citadel, Cairo's skyline features some of the most famous silhouettes in the world, reflecting past periods of might and prosperity. More recently, a new monument to a contemporary power and success has sprung up along the Nile—the gleaming twin towers that house Orascom, a business group owned by the Sawiris family.
What began 50 years ago as a small construction firm, founded by Onsi Sawiris, is now a commercial empire worth over $12 billion, controlled by his three sons, that stretches from America to Bangladesh via Iraq—and from tourism to cement and mobile telephony. Yasser Arafat was an investor in the empire, which has survived near-bankruptcy, terrorism and, riskiest of all, succession to a second generation of the family. Its prospects look good, as reflected in the soaring share price of its main businesses—Orascom Telecom Holdings (OTH), Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) and Orascom Hotels and Development (OHD)—which together account for 40% of the value of Egypt's stockmarket, among the world's best performers in the past year (see chart).
The family owns more than 50% of the shares in each firm. And in an arrangement which should minimise the risk of a costly family squabble over control, the majority of each stake belongs to the brother who is chief executive of that particular business—Naguib, the eldest, runs OTH; Samih, the middle brother, runs OHD; and Nassef, the youngest, heads OCI. Aged 74, Onsi Sawiris now seems content to serve as a non-executive on the boards of the family firms.
A more market-oriented approach by Egypt's government—indeed, by governments in many countries in the region—has brought an improvement in the business climate, as have glimmers of greater political openness. But the success of OTH and OCI in particular reflects a new trend in Middle Eastern business, says Hassan Heikal of EFG-Hermes, an Egyptian investment bank which counts Orascom among its clients. Rather than the traditional national focus, firms increasingly view the Arab world—flush with money from the recent surge in oil prices—as an extended domestic market where their cultural and personal ties make it easier to expand. (Orascom, like many other Middle Eastern businesses, has close relationships with ruling elites.) Both OTH and OCI have grown fast outside Egypt. Even OHD, the smallest, often-struggling bit of the Orascom empire, has expanded from Egypt's Red Sea into Jordan.
The strategies of the various Orascom businesses are said to reflect the different personalities of the Sawiris brothers. “Nassef is like a slow-moving tank, Naguib is a racing car and I am coming on my donkey,” laughs Samih Sawiris.
Nassef's solid image may help in a cyclical business such as cement. Institutional investors like his Western-style management and corporate governance. Nine years ago, OCI moved beyond its base in construction and building materials into cement production. Now it is one of the world's top 15 producers, churning out 12m tonnes this year into a booming market. Its original Egyptian plant is one of the world's cheapest producers, thanks in part to low labour costs and the country's plentiful supply of natural gas (the most expensive part of cement production). A weak Egyptian pound has helped exports. OCI now has cement plants in Algeria, Kurdistan, Pakistan and Nigeria as well.
Although the Egyptian press often criticises home-grown firms for consorting with the West, the Sawiris brothers (educated in Europe and America) are not afraid to work with foreigners. OCI makes more than 60% of its revenues outside Egypt, and has many joint-ventures, including with Holcim, a Swiss cement firm, and a 50% stake in Besix, a Belgian construction firm which is building in the Gulf, including what will be the world's tallest building in Dubai.
Compared with OCI's steady growth, OTH has ridden a rollercoaster. Starting in 1998 as a partner in Egypt's first mobile-phone operator, MobiNil, OTH expanded rapidly, buying licences—often at absurd prices—across the Middle East and Africa. By 2002 it was operating in 22 countries, but it was also deep in debt and, amid global gloom about telecoms, its share price was plunging. So Naguib Sawiris sold off various operations, including its Jordanian business for $424m. OTH now operates in just nine countries—where it has 11m subscribers and, estimates Karim Khadr, a telecoms analyst at HSBC, made a profit of around $370m last year.
Naguib now aspires to make OTH one of the world's leading mobile-phone operators, with a hugely ambitious target of 100m subscribers by 2010. He has no regrets about his earlier purchases, arguing that even the small ones gave OTH a “footprint” and credibility in larger markets. Still, he claims to have come to appreciate the value of financial restraint: as proof, he points to last year's loss of licences in Iran and Saudi Arabia to higher bidders. Nevertheless, that still leaves OTH in markets with a combined population of more than 500m, few fixed-line telephones and only 5% mobile-phone penetration. And, while OTH may expand further into Africa and south-east Asia, Naguib himself has an eye on Europe, where he is investing his own money in a consortium bidding for Wind, an Italian mobile-phone firm valued at €12 billion ($16 billion).
The three brothers try to minimise transactions between their firms. Less than 1% of OCI's construction revenues come from work for its sister companies. OHD runs its own hotel-construction business, and OTH uses a variety of contractors to build its infrastructure. This way, says Nassef Sawiris, the firms cut “the light thread of connection” which can worry outside investors. But the brothers do sometimes collaborate informally. For overseas expansion, once one brother goes into a country and establishes the commercial and political contacts, it is easier for another brother to follow.
Last year, when OCI and OTH were soaring, Samih's business was struggling to pay off a $9m loan. Other family members stepped in to help, providing enough private cash to reassure the banks that OHD would not default, just as they had rallied behind Naguib as he grappled with his phone licences. “The value of being part of a family in so many different businesses is that we can't go under all at the same time,” says Samih.
Iraq is putting that theory to the test. Early last year, both Nassef and Naguib Sawiris were in business there. OCI was involved in Iraqi reconstruction through its American subsidiary, Contrack, with contracts potentially worth $325m. But in December, it decided to withdraw from most of its projects, after finishing only $50m worth of work, in the face of attacks and rapidly rising security costs.
OCI wants to return when things quieten down—another three years, reckons Onsi Sawiris. (Indeed, Contrack still works in another hotspot, Afghanistan, and OCI has a plant in Kurdistan.) But Naguib remains busy in Iraq, despite having had employees taken hostage (later released), and a raid on his offices in December by American and Iraqi troops. Iraqna, OTH's Iraqi arm, already generates around 7% of the firm's revenues, and is set to grow as the service moves beyond its original concession in central Iraq to the southern part of the country. With over 20m people keen to talk, and no prospect of a reliable fixed-line service any time soon, even Iraq could turn into a lucrative proposition.
And here's an article about the richest family in Egypt (90th richest person/family in the world). They're Coptic Christians originally from Sohag, the poorest province in Egypt, which is about half Christian.
The Economist
Technology and development
Mar 10th 2005
FROM the pyramids to the Citadel, Cairo's skyline features some of the most famous silhouettes in the world, reflecting past periods of might and prosperity. More recently, a new monument to a contemporary power and success has sprung up along the Nile—the gleaming twin towers that house Orascom, a business group owned by the Sawiris family.
What began 50 years ago as a small construction firm, founded by Onsi Sawiris, is now a commercial empire worth over $12 billion, controlled by his three sons, that stretches from America to Bangladesh via Iraq—and from tourism to cement and mobile telephony. Yasser Arafat was an investor in the empire, which has survived near-bankruptcy, terrorism and, riskiest of all, succession to a second generation of the family. Its prospects look good, as reflected in the soaring share price of its main businesses—Orascom Telecom Holdings (OTH), Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) and Orascom Hotels and Development (OHD)—which together account for 40% of the value of Egypt's stockmarket, among the world's best performers in the past year (see chart).
The family owns more than 50% of the shares in each firm. And in an arrangement which should minimise the risk of a costly family squabble over control, the majority of each stake belongs to the brother who is chief executive of that particular business—Naguib, the eldest, runs OTH; Samih, the middle brother, runs OHD; and Nassef, the youngest, heads OCI. Aged 74, Onsi Sawiris now seems content to serve as a non-executive on the boards of the family firms.
A more market-oriented approach by Egypt's government—indeed, by governments in many countries in the region—has brought an improvement in the business climate, as have glimmers of greater political openness. But the success of OTH and OCI in particular reflects a new trend in Middle Eastern business, says Hassan Heikal of EFG-Hermes, an Egyptian investment bank which counts Orascom among its clients. Rather than the traditional national focus, firms increasingly view the Arab world—flush with money from the recent surge in oil prices—as an extended domestic market where their cultural and personal ties make it easier to expand. (Orascom, like many other Middle Eastern businesses, has close relationships with ruling elites.) Both OTH and OCI have grown fast outside Egypt. Even OHD, the smallest, often-struggling bit of the Orascom empire, has expanded from Egypt's Red Sea into Jordan.
The strategies of the various Orascom businesses are said to reflect the different personalities of the Sawiris brothers. “Nassef is like a slow-moving tank, Naguib is a racing car and I am coming on my donkey,” laughs Samih Sawiris.
Nassef's solid image may help in a cyclical business such as cement. Institutional investors like his Western-style management and corporate governance. Nine years ago, OCI moved beyond its base in construction and building materials into cement production. Now it is one of the world's top 15 producers, churning out 12m tonnes this year into a booming market. Its original Egyptian plant is one of the world's cheapest producers, thanks in part to low labour costs and the country's plentiful supply of natural gas (the most expensive part of cement production). A weak Egyptian pound has helped exports. OCI now has cement plants in Algeria, Kurdistan, Pakistan and Nigeria as well.
Although the Egyptian press often criticises home-grown firms for consorting with the West, the Sawiris brothers (educated in Europe and America) are not afraid to work with foreigners. OCI makes more than 60% of its revenues outside Egypt, and has many joint-ventures, including with Holcim, a Swiss cement firm, and a 50% stake in Besix, a Belgian construction firm which is building in the Gulf, including what will be the world's tallest building in Dubai.
Compared with OCI's steady growth, OTH has ridden a rollercoaster. Starting in 1998 as a partner in Egypt's first mobile-phone operator, MobiNil, OTH expanded rapidly, buying licences—often at absurd prices—across the Middle East and Africa. By 2002 it was operating in 22 countries, but it was also deep in debt and, amid global gloom about telecoms, its share price was plunging. So Naguib Sawiris sold off various operations, including its Jordanian business for $424m. OTH now operates in just nine countries—where it has 11m subscribers and, estimates Karim Khadr, a telecoms analyst at HSBC, made a profit of around $370m last year.
Naguib now aspires to make OTH one of the world's leading mobile-phone operators, with a hugely ambitious target of 100m subscribers by 2010. He has no regrets about his earlier purchases, arguing that even the small ones gave OTH a “footprint” and credibility in larger markets. Still, he claims to have come to appreciate the value of financial restraint: as proof, he points to last year's loss of licences in Iran and Saudi Arabia to higher bidders. Nevertheless, that still leaves OTH in markets with a combined population of more than 500m, few fixed-line telephones and only 5% mobile-phone penetration. And, while OTH may expand further into Africa and south-east Asia, Naguib himself has an eye on Europe, where he is investing his own money in a consortium bidding for Wind, an Italian mobile-phone firm valued at €12 billion ($16 billion).
The three brothers try to minimise transactions between their firms. Less than 1% of OCI's construction revenues come from work for its sister companies. OHD runs its own hotel-construction business, and OTH uses a variety of contractors to build its infrastructure. This way, says Nassef Sawiris, the firms cut “the light thread of connection” which can worry outside investors. But the brothers do sometimes collaborate informally. For overseas expansion, once one brother goes into a country and establishes the commercial and political contacts, it is easier for another brother to follow.
Last year, when OCI and OTH were soaring, Samih's business was struggling to pay off a $9m loan. Other family members stepped in to help, providing enough private cash to reassure the banks that OHD would not default, just as they had rallied behind Naguib as he grappled with his phone licences. “The value of being part of a family in so many different businesses is that we can't go under all at the same time,” says Samih.
Iraq is putting that theory to the test. Early last year, both Nassef and Naguib Sawiris were in business there. OCI was involved in Iraqi reconstruction through its American subsidiary, Contrack, with contracts potentially worth $325m. But in December, it decided to withdraw from most of its projects, after finishing only $50m worth of work, in the face of attacks and rapidly rising security costs.
OCI wants to return when things quieten down—another three years, reckons Onsi Sawiris. (Indeed, Contrack still works in another hotspot, Afghanistan, and OCI has a plant in Kurdistan.) But Naguib remains busy in Iraq, despite having had employees taken hostage (later released), and a raid on his offices in December by American and Iraqi troops. Iraqna, OTH's Iraqi arm, already generates around 7% of the firm's revenues, and is set to grow as the service moves beyond its original concession in central Iraq to the southern part of the country. With over 20m people keen to talk, and no prospect of a reliable fixed-line service any time soon, even Iraq could turn into a lucrative proposition.
Saturday, March 12, 2005
I just got back from a two-day trip to Ismailia, the middle of the three cities along the Suez Canal, which is not by either the Med (Port Said) or the Red (Suez), but by Crocodile Lake. It was the most picturesque of the three, with a lot of open green spaces and older European villas.
In grad school news, I'll most likely be going to Georgetown next year to do a Master's in Arab Studies. I would have liked to be in New York to be near Roban, Collin, and Ben Ben, and was interested in learning Turkish at NYU to be able to communicate with my sister, whose English isn't so great, but I'll be happy in DC.
"The Middle East gets its first superheroes"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4312547.stm
In grad school news, I'll most likely be going to Georgetown next year to do a Master's in Arab Studies. I would have liked to be in New York to be near Roban, Collin, and Ben Ben, and was interested in learning Turkish at NYU to be able to communicate with my sister, whose English isn't so great, but I'll be happy in DC.
"The Middle East gets its first superheroes"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4312547.stm
Saturday, March 05, 2005
Once again, apologies for not blogging much. There just hasn't been much going on in this part of the world.
I'm putting together a trip to Siwa--several CASA students and a few random foreigners and Egyptians are going, as well as Walid and his sister Wala'. The latter's still up in the air because Walid's older brother Tamer, an engineer in Ma'adi who's about to have to leave his good job for three years of military service (which is more than usual for someone with a university education, but engineers are in demand in the army). Walid's thinking about just bringing her without telling Tamer about it.
I'll post more soon, but I've still got 100+ pages of reading to slog through for tomorrow. My schedule this semester is very busy Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with CASA and work, but then I'm free after a Wednesday morning class that doesn't have any homework.
I'm putting together a trip to Siwa--several CASA students and a few random foreigners and Egyptians are going, as well as Walid and his sister Wala'. The latter's still up in the air because Walid's older brother Tamer, an engineer in Ma'adi who's about to have to leave his good job for three years of military service (which is more than usual for someone with a university education, but engineers are in demand in the army). Walid's thinking about just bringing her without telling Tamer about it.
I'll post more soon, but I've still got 100+ pages of reading to slog through for tomorrow. My schedule this semester is very busy Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with CASA and work, but then I'm free after a Wednesday morning class that doesn't have any homework.
